Monday, October 27, 2025
Futures: On Friday evening, LME copper opened at $10,856/mt, touched a low of $10,841.5/mt early in the session, then the center of copper prices rose all the way and touched a high of $10,979.5/mt near the end of the session, finally closing at $10,947/mt, a gain of 1.2%, with trading volume reaching 26,000 lots and open interest reaching 319,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2512 contract opened at 87,050 yuan/mt, touched a low of 86,940 yuan/mt early in the session, then the center rose and touched a high of 87,960 yuan/mt near the end of the session, finally closing at 87,660 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.91%, with trading volume reaching 104,000 lots and open interest reaching 280,000 lots.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) On October 23, Canadian mining company Eldorado Gold announced that its Skouries copper-gold project located on the Halkidiki peninsula in northern Greece is nearing completion, with the first production expected in early 2026, followed by commercial production in mid-2026. According to company monitoring, the project's construction is currently about 70% complete, with a designed mine life of about 20 years and average annual production of about 140,000 ounces of gold and about 67 million pounds of copper.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On October 24, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2511 contract were at a discount of 50 yuan/mt to a premium of 70 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a premium of 10 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper cathode prices were 86,240-86,600 yuan/mt. In the morning session, the center of SHFE copper slightly fell from 86,700 yuan/mt to 86,400 yuan/mt, then returned above 86,700 yuan/mt. The inter-month price spread fluctuated between a contango of 50-30 yuan/mt, and import losses widened to nearly 1,000 yuan/mt. Looking ahead this week, spot premiums are expected to continue declining under the impact of high copper prices.
(2) Guangdong: On October 24, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were at a premium of 0 yuan/mt to a premium of 60 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 30 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 80 yuan/mt to a discount of 40 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 60 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 86,445 yuan/mt, up 1,005 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 86,335 yuan/mt, up 1,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, downstream purchasing desire was sluggish amid the sharp rise in copper prices, and spot premiums declined.
(3) Imported copper: On October 24, warrant prices were $33-43/mt, QP November, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $42-64/mt, QP November, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $ -8/mt to $8/mt, QP November, with the average price down $9/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in late October and early November.
(4) Secondary Copper: At 11:30 on October 24, the futures closing price was 86,660 yuan/mt, up 1,070 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was 10 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials rose 600 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 77,800-77,800 yuan/mt, up 600 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,798 yuan/mt, up 432 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,880 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, as the tax payment deadline approaches, many secondary copper rod enterprises speculate that whether the policy will be implemented will be revealed after the tax payment date on the 27th. For now, Jiangxi and Anhui are still expected to be the primary regions for implementing the Notice No. 770, while other regions currently maintain normal production. If implemented nationwide, it would put downward pressure on the price of recycled copper raw materials in the market.
(5) Inventory: On October 23, LME copper cathode inventory decreased by 575 mt to 136,350 mt; on October 24, SHFE warrant inventory decreased by 977 mt to 35,071 mt.
Price: On the macro front, the US unadjusted CPI annual rate for September came in at 3%, slightly lower than the market consensus of 3.1%. Following this data release, traders increased bets on the US Fed cutting interest rates twice more within the year, supporting copper prices. The White House stated that it might be unable to release inflation data next month for the first time in history, increasing uncertainty in the US market and putting pressure on the US dollar, which is positive for copper prices. Additionally, China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Malaysia, conducting constructive discussions and reaching preliminary consensus on a series of issues including export controls, boosting market optimism about trade prospects, which also benefits copper prices. On the fundamentals side, supply side, high-quality copper supply is tight, and overall supply has tightened. Demand side, as copper prices surged, downstream purchasing sentiment continued to weaken. Overall, supported by macro tailwinds, copper prices are expected to find support at lower levels today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
